Approach to quantitative assessment of the resilience of critical infrastructure facilities

The resilience of critical infrastructure facilities is defined as the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions, as well as to withstand and recover quickly from failures, including deliberate attacks, accidents or natural threats. Ensuring a high level of security and resilience of critical infrastructure facilities for Ukraine in the face of russian aggression is an extremely urgent issue. The purpose of the research was to develop a methodological approach for quantifying the level of resilience of critical infrastructure facilities, regardless of the critical infrastructure sectors to which they belong and all types of project threats. The object of research is the safety and resilience of critical infrastructure facilities. The subject of research is the methodology for quantifying the level of resilience of critical infrastructure facilities. Results obtained. The initial stage after a dangerous event is a type of manifestation of the "fold" catastrophe defined in the theory of catastrophes. This approach allows you to determine the losses in the volume of service provision by a critical infrastructure facility as a result of a dangerous event, which determine the vulnerability of the object. The higher this indicator, the lower the stability of the critical infrastructure facility. The use of the simulation model for cascading effects makes it possible to obtain probabilistic estimates of the development of events according to certain scenarios and allows to assess threats to a critical infrastructure facility by the probability of occurrence of events and transitions between them. Based on the obtained values of the probability of occurrence of dangerous events for all elements of the critical infrastructure facility We identify the most vulnerable and quantify resilience for them. This makes it possible to assess the necessary resources (financial, material, energy, human, transport, etc.) to increase resilience. Determine the necessary redundancy elements to avoid cascading effects and unintended consequences. Conclusions. On the basis of the theory of disasters, a single methodological approach has been developed for quantifying the level of resilience of critical infrastructure facilities, regardless of the critical infrastructure sectors to which they belong.The proposed approach allows to conduct a stability analysis for all elements of a critical infrastructure facility, to conduct a comparative analysis of vulnerability and resilience of sector facilities, to assess the amount of additional investments needed to reduce vulnerability and increase the resilience of facility elements, to develop sectoral programs to increase the resilience of sector facilities, to determine the necessary territorial resources of reservation and their volumes.

Tretyakov, O.

critical infrastructure facility

Національний університет «Полтавська політехніка імені Юрія Кондратюка»

info:eu-repo/semantics/article

application/pdf

https://journals.nupp.edu.ua/sunz/article/view/3693

Control, Navigation and Communication Systems. Academic Journal; Vol. 1 No. 79 (2025): Control, Navigation and Communication Systems; 178-183

uk

https://journals.nupp.edu.ua/sunz/article/view/3693/3032

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0